The Red Undertow

When Voters Just Say Screw It

There’s something fascinating happening in American politics right now.

And it might be one of the most important stories of the 2026 midterm elections.

Republicans aren’t necessarily becoming Democrats.

Democrats aren’t necessarily winning over Republicans.

A whole bunch of Americans are just getting tired of the entire damn thing.

And they’re thinking about staying home.

There’s actually a name for what’s happening.

The Red Undertow.

Now, I love that expression.

We’ve all heard about a blue wave. We’ve heard about a red wave.

But a red undertow?

That’s something different.

That’s when the water doesn’t come crashing onto the beach.

It quietly pulls everything out to sea.

And according to a fascinating New York Times article this morning, that’s what some political observers believe may be happening to the Republican Party.

Not because everybody suddenly loves Democrats.

Hell, the Democrats have plenty of problems of their own.

But because some Republicans are simply exhausted.

And you know what?

I think exhaustion might be one of the most powerful political forces in America today.

Think about it.

For ten years, Donald Trump has dominated American politics.

Ten years!

Every morning, there’s another controversy.

Another speech.

Another insult.

Another fight.

Another explanation about what he really meant when he said something that nobody understood in the first place.

It’s like living in a reality television show that never gets canceled.

And the audience is getting tired.

Even some of the people who bought season tickets.

Now, here’s what I found particularly interesting about this article.

The reporter went to western Michigan, a traditionally Republican area, and started talking to ordinary people.

Not political consultants.

Not television personalities.

Not somebody sitting in Washington telling us what Americans think.

Actual Americans.

People who work for a living.

People who buy groceries.

People who pay rent.

People who fill their cars with gasoline.

And what were they talking about?

Not political ideology.

Not socialism versus capitalism.

Not the latest argument on cable television.

They were talking about the cost of living.

One gentleman was worried about his granddaughter.

She’s 28 years old.

College graduate.

Working three jobs.

Three!

And she still can’t afford to buy a house.

Now, what the hell is wrong with that picture?

We tell young Americans to work hard.

Get an education.

Be responsible.

Save your money.

And everything will work out.

Well, this young woman apparently did exactly what she was supposed to do.

And she’s still locked out of the American dream.

That’s not a Republican problem.

That’s not a Democratic problem.

That’s an American problem.

And here’s another guy in the article.

He’s standing there with two bags of groceries.

He says he just spent sixty dollars on what used to cost thirty.

And now he’s getting ready to put five-dollar gasoline in his car.

And he’s wondering what the hell happened.

That’s the conversation Americans are having.

Not whether somebody won an argument on television last night.

They’re wondering whether they can afford to live.

And that brings me to something I’ve been thinking about for a long time.

What happens when people lose faith that politics can actually improve their lives?

Because that’s where things get interesting.

You see, Americans don’t necessarily stop voting because they’re lazy.

Sometimes they stop voting because they’re frustrated.

Sometimes they’re disappointed.

Sometimes they don’t believe anybody is listening.

And sometimes they look at the candidates and say:

“Are you kidding me? These are my choices?”

Now, I want to be careful here.

Not every Republican is abandoning Trump.

Far from it.

He still has a loyal base.

And a few dozen interviews in Michigan don’t tell us exactly what’s going to happen across the country in November.

But the article points to something worth examining.

An enthusiasm gap.

According to the September New York Times/Siena poll cited in the story, 61 percent of Democrats said they were absolutely certain to vote.

For Republicans, it was 56 percent.

That’s a five-point difference.

Now, that doesn’t sound like much.

But elections can be decided by remarkably small margins.

And turnout matters.

A lot.

Here’s the part that really interests me.

Some of these Republicans say they would never vote for a Democrat.

Never.

But they’re not particularly excited about voting Republican, either.

So what do they do?

They stay home.

And suddenly, the political landscape changes without anybody actually changing political parties.

That’s the red undertow.

And it’s a reminder that elections aren’t just about changing people’s minds.

They’re also about whether people believe participating is worth their time.

Now, I’ve been out interviewing people myself.

I’ve been talking to people around Greensboro about their lives, their community, and what they want for the future.

And one thing I’ve learned is that when you stop talking and start listening, people will tell you what’s important to them.

And it usually isn’t the political nonsense dominating television.

It’s their families.

Their neighborhoods.

Their jobs.

Their health.

Their future.

And whether their children are going to have a better life than they did.

That’s what matters.

I’m 69 years old.

I’m a baby boomer.

I grew up in an America where a working person had a reasonable expectation of buying a house, raising a family, and building a future.

It wasn’t perfect.

Not everybody had equal access to those opportunities.

Far from it.

But that expectation was a powerful part of the American dream.

Now I talk to young people who wonder whether they’ll ever own a home.

And some older Americans wonder whether they can afford to stay in theirs.

That’s a serious problem.

And I don’t think we solve it by spending every waking moment arguing about Donald Trump.

Or Joe Biden.

Or Democrats.

Or Republicans.

At some point, somebody has to start talking about solutions.

Real solutions.

Housing.

Healthcare.

Education.

Jobs.

Infrastructure.

The things that determine whether people can actually build decent lives.

And here’s something else.

We should be concerned when Americans become so discouraged that they decide not to participate.

Regardless of which political party benefits.

Because democracy depends on participation.

It depends on people believing their voices matter.

It depends on citizens showing up.

Not just during presidential elections.

But in congressional elections.

State elections.

And especially local elections, where decisions directly affect our neighborhoods.

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about how we get more Americans engaged.

And I keep coming back to one simple idea.

Before we can expect people to participate, we have to give them a reason to believe participation matters.

We have to listen.

We have to address the problems they’re actually facing.

And we have to stop treating every political disagreement like a declaration of war.

Because here’s the danger.

When people stop trusting politicians, that’s one thing.

But when they stop trusting the democratic process itself, that’s something much more serious.

And that’s why this story matters.

The red undertow isn’t just a story about Republicans.

It’s a story about political exhaustion.

It’s about Americans who feel disconnected from the people making decisions on their behalf.

And it’s about what happens when frustration turns into disengagement.

So here’s my question.

What if, instead of measuring political success only by how many votes one party takes from another, we started asking how many people actually feel represented?

How many people believe somebody is listening?

How many people believe their government is working for them?

Because winning an election and earning the public’s trust are not necessarily the same thing.

And if there’s one lesson we ought to take from this story, it’s this:

A democracy shouldn’t have to depend on which side is more exhausted.

It ought to depend on which ideas people believe in, which solutions they support, and whether they have confidence that their participation can make a difference.

And when Americans start saying, “Screw it, I’m staying home,” we shouldn’t just ask which party benefits.

We should ask a much more important question.

What the hell have we done to make people feel that way?

And more importantly—

What are we going to do about it?