Today at the White House, President Trump is rolling out the red carpet for Chinese President Xi Jinping.
And I mean the red carpet.
Hundreds of American military personnel. Military bands. American flags. Chinese flags. A B-2 stealth bomber flying overhead. Tonight, a state dinner so exclusive that Trump says he’s telling some of his friends, “Sorry, you can’t come.”
This isn’t just a diplomatic meeting.
This is theater.
But behind all that pageantry is something much more important.
The United States and China are trying to figure out how the two most powerful countries on Earth are going to live with each other.
Because here’s the reality:
America and China are competitors.
We’re competing economically.
We’re competing technologically.
We’re competing militarily.
We’re competing over artificial intelligence.
We’re competing for influence around the world.
But we’re also deeply connected.
And that’s what makes this relationship so complicated.
We buy enormous amounts of stuff from China. China buys American products. American companies manufacture there. Chinese companies depend on American markets and technology.
So we can compete with China.
We can challenge China.
We can disagree with China.
But somehow, we’ve also got to figure out how to coexist with China.
And that’s what makes this meeting important.
Now, don’t expect some giant breakthrough.
The trade war isn’t suddenly going away.
The dispute over Taiwan isn’t disappearing.
The competition over artificial intelligence isn’t disappearing.
China’s relationships with Russia and Iran aren’t disappearing.
And America’s concerns about Chinese economic and military power aren’t disappearing either.
Those are fundamental disagreements.
But something interesting has happened.
Donald Trump spent years building his political identity partly around confronting China.
Tariffs.
Trade deficits.
Manufacturing.
Technology.
“America First.”
But lately, he’s been emphasizing something different:
His personal relationship with Xi Jinping.
Trump visited Beijing earlier this year.
Now Xi is coming to Washington.
Trump even went to meet Xi when his plane landed Wednesday.
That’s unusual.
And it tells you something about how Trump approaches diplomacy.
He believes personal relationships matter.
Sometimes a lot.
The question is whether a good personal relationship between two presidents can actually overcome the enormous strategic differences between two countries.
Because Xi Jinping isn’t coming to Washington just to have dinner.
He’s got an agenda too.
China wants stability in its economic relationship with the United States.
China wants access to markets.
China wants fewer restrictions on technology.
And above everything else, China cares enormously about Taiwan.
Meanwhile, the United States wants concessions on trade.
It wants reliable access to critical minerals and rare earths.
It wants protections for American technology.
It wants China to play a constructive role with Russia, Ukraine and Iran.
And increasingly, both countries have to deal with something that barely existed as a geopolitical issue a few years ago:
Artificial intelligence.
Think about that.
The United States and China aren’t simply competing to build the best cars or the cheapest televisions anymore.
They’re competing over technologies that could reshape economies, militaries and societies.
And that’s where this relationship becomes bigger than Trump and Xi.
Because these two men won’t be around forever.
The United States will still be here.
China will still be here.
And we’re going to have to live on the same planet.
So maybe the measure of success isn’t whether Trump comes out tomorrow and announces some giant historic deal.
Maybe it’s whether these two governments can build enough communication that competition doesn’t turn into confrontation.
Because there’s another lesson from history worth remembering.
Great powers don’t necessarily get into wars because somebody wakes up one morning and says:
“Let’s have a world war.”
Sometimes they stumble into them.
A misunderstanding.
A military incident.
An economic confrontation.
One side misreads the other.
Then somebody retaliates.
Then somebody retaliates against the retaliation.
And suddenly everybody is standing around wondering:
How the hell did we get here?
That’s why diplomacy matters.
Even boring diplomacy.
Maybe especially boring diplomacy.
So yes, enjoy the spectacle.
Watch the bands.
Watch the flags.
Watch the B-2 bomber fly overhead.
Watch the state dinner.
Watch two of the most powerful people on Earth shake hands for the cameras.
But then turn down the volume and look at what actually happens.
What happens with trade?
What happens with Taiwan?
What happens with artificial intelligence?
What happens with Russia and Iran?
And most importantly:
Do these two countries leave Washington understanding each other a little better than they did when they arrived?
Because America doesn’t have to love China.
China doesn’t have to love America.
We don’t even have to trust each other.
But when you’ve got two countries this powerful, armed with nuclear weapons, competing economically and technologically across the entire planet…
they damn well better keep talking.
The ceremony is theater.
The dinner is diplomacy.
But keeping competition from becoming conflict?
That’s the real work.
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